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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


North Carolina

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:4.0
Current RPI:4
Expected SOS:1
Current SOS:1
Current Record:25-10
Expected Record:25-10
Current Conf Record:14-8
Expected Conf Record:14-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-104.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Northern Iowa (138.0)MVCH86-69W100%0.0
11-15Bucknell (80.0)PatH93-81W100%0.0
11-20Stanford (86.0)P12A72-96W100%0.0
11-23Portland (285.0)WCCN78-102W100%0.0
11-24Arkansas (30.0)SECN68-87W100%0.0
11-26Michigan St. (14.0)B10N63-45L0%0.0
11-29Michigan (12.0)B10H86-71W100%0.0
12-1Davidson (47.0)A10A75-85W100%0.0
12-3Tulane (175.0)AmerH97-73W100%0.0
12-6Western Carolina (215.0)SCH104-61W100%0.0
12-17Tennessee (8.0)SECA73-78W100%0.0
12-20Wofford (129.0)SCH75-79L0%0.0
12-23Ohio St. (20.0)B10N86-72W100%0.0
12-30Wake Forest (160.0)ACCH73-69W100%0.0
1-3Florida St. (54.0)ACCA81-80L0%0.0
1-6Virginia (1.0)ACCA61-49L0%0.0
1-9Boston College (96.0)ACCH96-66W100%0.0
1-13Notre Dame (70.0)ACCA68-69W100%0.0
1-16Clemson (11.0)ACCH87-79W100%0.0
1-20Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCH80-66W100%0.0
1-22Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCA80-69L0%0.0
1-27North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCH91-95L0%0.0
1-30Clemson (11.0)ACCA82-78L0%0.0
2-3Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCH96-65W100%0.0
2-8Duke (7.0)ACCH82-78W100%0.0
2-10North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA89-96W100%0.0
2-12Notre Dame (70.0)ACCH83-66W100%0.0
2-17Louisville (38.0)ACCA76-93W100%0.0
2-21Syracuse (45.0)ACCA74-78W100%0.0
2-27Miami FL (28.0)ACCH88-91L0%0.0
3-3Duke (7.0)ACCA74-64L0%0.0
3-7Syracuse (45.0)ACCN78-59W100%0.0
3-8Miami FL (28.0)ACCN65-82W100%0.0
3-9Duke (7.0)ACCN69-74W100%0.0
3-10Virginia (1.0)ACCN71-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North CarolinaACC26.1726.1771.4371.4311.2211.22
DukeACC4.844.8483.3383.333.233.23
Notre DameACC3.523.5261.2961.290.790.79
ClemsonACC3.503.5073.3373.331.631.63
VirginiaACC3.503.5093.5593.553.053.05
North Carolina St.ACC3.483.4866.6766.671.161.16
SyracuseACC3.433.4364.5264.521.001.00
Miami FLACC3.393.3972.4172.411.521.52
Boston CollegeACC2.162.1657.5857.580.330.33
Wake ForestACC2.132.1336.6736.67-0.57-0.57
Georgia TechACC2.112.1141.9441.94-0.34-0.34
PittsburghACC2.112.1125.8125.81-1.02-1.02
Virginia TechACC2.112.1164.5264.520.610.61
LouisvilleACC2.072.0762.5062.500.520.52
Florida St.ACC2.072.0763.3363.330.550.55
Michigan St.B101.601.6087.5087.501.201.20
TennesseeSEC1.561.5678.1278.120.880.88
Ohio St.B101.561.5677.4277.420.850.85
Western CarolinaSC1.521.5237.9337.93-0.37-0.37
MichiganB101.521.5281.8281.820.970.97
WoffordSC1.501.5058.6258.620.260.26
ArkansasSEC1.491.4969.7069.700.590.59
Northern IowaMVC1.471.4748.2848.28-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA101.471.4767.7467.740.520.52
TulaneAmer1.451.4546.6746.67-0.10-0.10
StanfordP121.451.4556.2556.250.180.18
BucknellPat1.451.4575.7675.760.750.75
PortlandWCC1.431.4325.0025.00-0.71-0.71
IndianaB100.240.2451.6151.610.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.230.2377.4277.420.130.13
FloridaSEC0.220.2262.5062.500.050.05
FurmanSC0.210.2167.7467.740.070.07
Penn St.B100.180.1861.7661.760.040.04
MarylandB100.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
The CitadelSC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
VMISC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
SamfordSC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.08-0.08
MinnesotaB100.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
IowaB100.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.150.1582.3582.350.100.10
MercerSC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
LSUSEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
ColgatePat0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
George WashingtonA100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
North FloridaASun0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
NavyPat0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
La SalleA100.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
St. BonaventureA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
LehighPat0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
MississippiSEC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
High PointBSth0.090.0940.7440.74-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0979.4179.410.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
PacificWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
MemphisAmer0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.073.333.33-0.06-0.06
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
BryantNEC0.070.079.689.68-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
WashingtonP120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
ArmyPat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ElonCAA0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.060.0679.4179.410.040.04
OaklandHorz0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
St. John'sBE0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
MissouriSEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.049.689.68-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
DuquesneA100.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.040.0460.0060.000.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0480.6580.650.030.03
OhioMAC0.040.0443.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.040.0427.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0440.0040.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.040.0448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0410.7110.71-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.040.0477.4277.420.020.02
DetroitHorz0.040.0420.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.040.0464.5264.520.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.040.0453.3353.330.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
CornellIvy0.040.0440.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0458.6258.620.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.040.0451.6151.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.040.0460.6160.610.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0466.6766.670.010.01
USCP120.040.0467.6567.650.020.02
Washington St.P120.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.040.0455.8855.880.010.01
SienaMAAC0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.040.0420.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0260.7160.710.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
AkronMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ButlerBE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0215.6215.62-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01